More problems with baseball's "best" announcers

Last night, Joe Morgan. Tonight, Tim McCarver.

Even more than Morgan, Tim McCarver is widely considered to have one of the best baseball minds out there. So much so, in fact, that he wrote (along with Danny Peary) a book called Baseball for Brain Surgeons and Other Fans. I got the book last year and read it pretty quickly. At the time, I took what McCarver had to say for granted... he's Tim McCarver, after all, so he's got to be right.

But I've reread bits and pieces of the book in recent weeks, and McCarver often doesn't make much sense. Superficially, he brings some interesting insights to the game, but when you look more closely, the significance of what he writes all but vanishes.

The following quotation is from chapter 18, "The Lineup," and can be found on pages 154-155.

In the National League, eighth is a very tough spot. It probably requires more patience than any spot in the lineup, and that's asking a lot from someone who doesn't get as many at-bats as the other guys. It's interesting to note that an eight-place hitter often helps an offense not by hitting and scoring but by clearing. It is imperative for an eight-place hitter to understand the value of clearing the pitcher so that the leadoff batter can open the next inning. [...]

With two outs, the eighth-place hitter must figure out how to get on base so that the pitcher will bat - if the pitcher makes an out, it's preferable that it be the third out of the current inning rather than the first out of the next inning.

Now McCarver's underlying observation is exactly right: you don't ever want a pitcher to lead off an inning; the vast majority of the time that means you'll open up the next inning with an out, and it's a whole lot harder to score runs with one out and the bases empty than with no outs and the bases empty. So the eighth guy in the lineup wants to do everything in his power to get on base, especially when there are two outs. This seems like a pretty reasonable conclusion. And it is.

The problem is that getting on base is what all hitters are trying to do. It's not as if 8-hole hitters have a special responsibility to not make outs. That's everybody's responsibility. In fact, according to the sabermetric view of baseball (check out Moneyball by Michael Lewis to see how the Oakland A's have used sabermetrics to succeed in recent years on a limited budget), avoiding outs is the key to a successful offense. Imagine an lineup that always got a hit or walked; that lineup would score an infinite number of runs. Get on base, even with walks and singles, and you'll be a successful hitter.*

In other words, a guy hitting eighth should do exactly what every other guy should do: get on base. Does Tim McCarver really believe that it's more important for 8-hole hitters to avoid outs than anyone else? Good hitters avoid outs. Period.

McCarver goes on to discuss how guys on base when the pitcher's batting need to be conservative in their baserunning. Don't try to steal second. If you get thrown out, you're back at square one and the pitcher's leading off the next inning. But baserunning is an entirely separate issue from batting. And it applies just as much to a hitter batting sixth who happens to be on base with two outs when the pitcher's batting.

On its face, McCarver seems to be making an observation that hitters should incorporate into their thinking and viewers into their, er, viewing. But when you think about it just a bit more, you realize that there's nothing to incorporate. Hitters should try to get on base. Thanks, Tim... I wasn't quite sure about that.

McCarver's writing and commentary is full of stuff like this. At first, he appears to be bringing some real insight to the game that could help players play better and viewers understand what they're watching. But on closer examination, it becomes awfully apparent that he's full of shit.

*Power is nice, too, but as any critique of On-Base Plus Slugging points out, getting on base is more important than getting lots of bases.