What's wrong with the Phillies? (2nd in a series continuing until the Phillies start playing well)

First, they're still not scoring enough runs. Even after last night's 10-run explosion, they're still in the bottom half of the National League when it comes to putting runs on the board. Hopefully the insertion of Ryan Howard into the lineup to replace the ailing and largely ineffective Jim Thome will help keep the runs coming.

Second, they're allowing too many runs. It's fairly easy to pinpoint who's to blame for the poor pitching. Assuming each pitcher on the Phillies staff was equally effective, they'd give up runs at the same rate. Pitchers who pitch more innings would allow more runs, but any other pitching those same innings would give up those same runs. By comparing how many runs a pitcher has actually allowed to the number a team-average pitcher pitching the same number of innings would allow, we can assess how much he's hurt or helped the team. Here's how the 2005 Phillies pitching staff shakes out.

(Scroll down. The table doesn't seem to be formatting properly. Suggestions welcome.)

Pitcher	Expected Runs Allowed	Runs Allowed	Difference
Brett Myers	23.4	8	15.4
Jon Lieber	24.2	15	9.2
Billy Wagner	6.4	0	6.4
Aaron Fultz	7	3	4
Ryan Madson	7.4	6	1.4
Geoff Geary	2.1	1	1.1
Rheal Cormier	4.1	4	0.1
Cory Lidle	16.1	17	-0.9
Tim Worrell	5.8	9	-3.2
Pedro Liriano	6	2.7	-3.3
Randy Wolf	16.9	21	-4.1
Terry Adams	5.4	10	-4.6
Vicente Padilla	6.4	14	-7.6
Gavin Floyd	8.1	22	-13.9

As you'd expect, Brett Myers, Jon Lieber, and Billy Wagner top the list as the Phillies pitchers who have made the greatest contributions. Myers has been spectacular, exceeding virtually everyone's expectations. Lieber has been solid in every start, never giving up more than four runs. And Billy Wagner has yet to give up a run. That's the good news.

The bad news starts with two pitchers who haven't even pitched all that much for the Phillies yet have found ways to hurt them. Gavin Floyd, who's allowed almost 15 more runs than the average Phillies pitcher would give up. In Floyd's defense, he was sterling in his first start. And he's back down in the minors, so there's not much use criticizing him now.

Vicente Padilla is next worst. I just don't know what to make of Padilla. At his best, he's very very good. But if he gets off his game, it gets ugly quickly. His last start was a decent one, 2 earned runs over 5 innings, so maybe he just needed to recover fully from his injury.

Randy Wolf's struggled as well. He's pitching for the Phillies tonight. Hopefully he can get back on track and get his ERA under, oh, I don't know... 6.

There's not much you can say about struggling starts. It's not as if there are many other options out there. The starting rotation you have is, for the most part, the starting rotation you've got to work with. There are potentially some players in the minor leagues who could outperform Padilla or Wolf, but the situation has not yet become desperate.

There's plenty, however, to say about bullpen usage. Liriano, the Phillies least effective reliever, has been sent down to AAA. No complaints there. One has to question Charlie Manuel's judgment, however, when you look at the usage of Terry Adams and Tim Worrell. Adams and Worrell are the two least effective relievers on the Phillies active roster. Yet Worrell has made more relief appearances than any other Phillies pitcher, and Adams is tied for second in appearances with Billy Wagner. Adams has given up runs in over half the games he's pitched in, Worrell nearly half. Look at it this way: if you put in Adams or Worrell, there's roughly a 50% chance they'll give up at least one run. These are not the guys you want pitching in close games. Yet Manuel continues to use Worrell as the set-up man for closer Billy Wagner. Manuel's bullpen usage has clearly lost the Phillies some games.

So, to sum up, the Phillies have several problems. They aren't scoring enough runs. Not to much you can do about that except send your best lineup up to bat and hope they turn it around. They've got a few starting pitchers who aren't getting the job done. Again, not much you can do about that. And they've got some crappy relievers who, inexplicably, are pitching in lots of games. This is something that can be fixed. Until Charlie Manuel stops using Terry Adams and Tim Worrell in close games, the Phillies won't be putting their best team on the field, and they won't be performing to their potential.