What's wrong with the Phillies? Part I: Offense

Yes, there is something wrong with the Phillies. A few things, actually. But first, here's how we know there's something wrong.

They've been outscored by their opponents 76-66, the second worst ratio in the NL East. Based on Bill James's "Pythagorean theorem," the Phillies should have a winning percentage of .430, that is an 6-8 record. Their record is better than it "should" be based on their run differential.

But the crucial thing is that their opponents are scoring more runs than them. You win baseball games by scoring more runs than your opponent. Consistently score fewer runs and you're going to lose more games than you win. It's as straightforward as it gets.

The Phillies are in the middle of the pack in terms of the number of runs they've scored - 7th out of 16 National League teams. This is largely the same lineup that scored the 3rd most runs in the NL last year. If anything, they should be scoring more runs, what with the putative improvement in centerfield and what was supposed to be the everyday presence of Chase Utley in the lineup. But the Phils just aren't scoring as many runs as they should.

Who's to blame for that? Who's underperforming? Catcher Mike Lieberthal, whose OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .619 is more than 150 points below last year's OPS. First baseman Jim Thome, whose .644 OPS is more than 300 points below his career average. Sometime second baseman Placido Polanco; his .578 OPS represents a 200-point drop over recent seasons. Third baseman David Bell, OPS of .586, almost 250 points off his career year last season. Rightfielder Bobby Abreu, OPS .730, almost 200 point off his career average.

Yes, this is the time when you gulp. That's four and a half (Polanco counts as a half) out of eight regulars. There's not much worry with Abreu or Thome - they've shown the ability to consistently produce offensively for a number of years. Lieberthal's on the decline (as catchers typically are when they reach his age), but remains serviceable. The real problem, then, is David Bell. Bell had a monster year last season, outpacing his previous best in OPS by almost sixty points. He's due for a big drop-off. Coupled with his defensive woes, he's not a plus on the field right now.

The Phillies should bench David Bell and send Placido Polanco over to third base. Polanco's younger, has a higher career OPS, is a better defender, and has more speed. All Bell brings to the table at the moment is a history of back problems and the memories of last season's offensive heroics.

Just as importantly, moving Polanco to third allows Chase Utley to play second base everyday. Chase Utley, whose current OPS is a robust .960. Chase Utley who's probably a better defender than Polanco. Chase Utley, who's been the Phillies second baseman of the future for a long time. The future is now.

This switch would go a long way in addressing the Phillies run-scoring problem by getting Utley and Polanco's bats every day and keeping the currently ineffective Bell out of the batter's box. Once Thome and Abreu start producing (which they will), the Phillies will be strong from 1-6 in the lineup: Jimmy Rollins - Placido Polanco - Bobby Abreu - Pat Burrell - Jim Thome - Chase Utley. Stick with a lineup like that and you're going to score some runs.

Tomorrow, what's wrong with the Phillies' pitching. The short version: not much.