Sunday, May 07, 2006

Why aren't there more cricket statistics? Part 2

As I discussed in Part 1 of this series, baseball has far more statistics than cricket, in spite of numerous similarities. There are a number of reasons for this disparity, some related to the mechanics of cricket and some to the external circumstances in which cricket is currently played. This post looks at two factors that fall into the second category: (relatively) low salaries and a year-round cricket season. If cricketers earned higher salaries, fans would likely become more interested in accurate assessment of their performance. And if cricket had a clearly defined season, it would be far easier to evaluate players over a set period of time. If these circumstances were more similar to those in baseball, cricket fans would be more likely to develop a more robust set of cricket statistics.

The median salary for a major league baseball player is $1 million. Alex Rodriguez, the highest paid player in the game, will make $21.6 million this year. His teammate on the Yankees, Hideki Matsui, comes in at 25th, earning $13 million. Baseball players make a lot of money. The contrast with cricket is striking. I can't find the median salary figures for county cricket, but the BBC reports that "a six-figure deal for any player - from overseas or otherwise - is unusual." Even with the weakness of the dollar, the top players in domestic cricket make less than half of the median earnings of major league baseball players. Even players like Tomas Perez, the very definition of a replacement-level player, earn over half a million dollars.

The top cricket players in the world do not rely on domestic cricket contracts. They spend most of their time with their national sides and receive a salary from the national cricket organization. But even in the realm of international contracts cricketers earn far less than baseball players. The ECB salaries of Andrew Flintoff, Michael Vaughan, and Marcus Trescothick (three of the most important players in the England side) have been estimated at £400,000, which only puts them within shouting distance of the typical baseball player and nowhere close to baseball players with similar skills. Baseball players earn more than cricket players, period.

But with baseball's inflated salaries comes a greater scrutiny from fans. When faced with the absurd proposition of players receiving millions of dollars to play a game for a few hours a day, fans may very well start wondering if all that money is worth it, especially if those high salaries are financed through increased ticket prices. If it turns out that Alex Rodriguez created 138 runs in 2005, or, better yet, was worth 12.3 wins, paying him over $20 million each year might seem a bit less preposterous. I don't think it's a coincidence that Bill James and sabermetrics began gaining popularity in the early 1980s; Nolan Ryan became the first player to make a million dollars in one season in 1980.

In short, high salaries lead to greater interest in objective measures of performance. If cricket salaries increased tenfold in the next year, there would be far greater attention devoted to determining just who's actually earning those overblown salaries.

The year-round international cricket schedule also contributes to the relative lack of cricket statistics. While each cricketing nation has a clearly defined cricket season (April through September in England, October through March in Australia, etc.), cricket's international appeal ensures that cricket is always being playedsomewheree in the world and that international sides play year-round (much to the consternation of some players). It is not possible to speak of the 2006 international cricket season; the rhythm of the international game is governed by series, not seasons.

The lack of a clear cricket season, unsurprisingly, prevents the development of season statistics and records. While yearly statistics are occasionally highlighted (like Shane Warne's unprecedented 96 wickets in 2005), there's not nearly the same emphasis on season results as seen in baseball. It's true, of course, that season statistics do exist for the various domestic competitions. Scoring 2,000 runs or taking 200 wickets in a single season of county cricket remains a recognized achievement. But the demands of international cricket ensure that the best crickets in the world (i.e. the ones most likely to be subjected to rigorous statistical analyses) play in just a few domestic matches each year. In short, the lack of a clearly defined international cricket season means that there are no ready-made periods of time over which international players' performances can be evaluated and, as a result, discourage the development of more cricket statistics.

Low salaries and a year-round international cricket calendar help explain why there are relatively few cricket statistics compared to baseball stats. But the most compelling explanations lie in the game of cricket itself. For details, check back for the next part in this series.

7 Comments:

At May 8, 2006, 7:32:00 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

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Cheers mate and looking forward to the next part...

 
At May 9, 2006, 10:28:00 PM , Blogger Danny said...

I agree with you, RoadRage7, that higher salaries are less of a reason than the lack of a clear cricket season. But I do believe that there'd be more interest in cricket stats if salaries increased dramatically. Maybe not in India (just out of curiosity; is cricket the most popular sport in India? I've also heard that (field) hockey is also tremendously popular).

Baseball has always had lots of stats, but the past 20 years has seen an explosion of new ones.

One of the most important insights that statistical analysis of baseball has brought to the table is that, just like in cricket, context matters. The layout and location of some stadiums virtually guarantees high scoring games, while other stadiums depress the number of runs scored. I imagine similar sorts of things happen in cricket.

I've only been following cricket for about a year, so I'm still learning plenty of new things. What exactly accounts for the Indian team's inability to win Test series outside of India? Different types of wickets, of course, but I'm wondering if you could go into greater detail. Also, is it the case that more (or fewer?) runs are scored in India? Or is it just that the shape of the game is different in the subcontinent?

Baseball fans spend lots of time comparing players from different eras and have come up with some nifty tools to do so accurately. So I imagine that similar stats could be developed for cricket. I'll talk about it in greater detail in a future post.

 
At Dec 20, 2006, 6:29:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Baseball and stats?? thats funny, some of the stats shouldnt even be considered stats, cal ripkins consecutive games, most consecutive games with a hit or a walk, hit by pitch stats?, come on only stats that matter are hits, runs, hrs, rbi's, SO, wins, losses, just the ones that actually relate to the player himself...

cricket has Runs, Strike rate, Avg, N/O, wkts, overs, bowling avg, economy,

if cricket wants they can add stats such as how many singles, 4s, 6's guy has hit, how many consecutive games has a bowler picked up a wicket.. how many catches a fielder has taken while fielding deep midwicket, or how many times batsman has ducked a bouncer instead of hooking.. blah blah.. we can go on an on..

frankly i dont care how many consecutive games a hitter has gotten a hit or a walk,.. its a simple game but to make it seem complicated mlb has added all these useless stats..

 
At Dec 26, 2006, 1:58:00 PM , Blogger Danny said...

It's funny that you point to runs, RBIs, wins, and losses as the "ones that actually relate to the player himself." As it turns out, all of those stats are heavily dependent on the performance of the players around them. To get a lot of RBIs, you need a lot of people getting on base ahead of you. A pitcher who gets poor run support will end up with a bad win-loss record, even if he's pitching well. More on wins and losses here.

I agree with you that there are a whole lot of useless stats that baseball fans salivate over. Things like consecutive games reaching base are occasionally enlightening (Ted Williams once reached base in 84 games in a row!), but consecutive games played is solely a measure of durability and tells us nothing about how good a player he is.

The sort of statistics I'm interested in aren't these quirky ones but rather those that give us a better picture of how good players are. There's been a lot of sophisticated work done in the field of sabermetrics that reveals a lot more than the traditional baseball statistics like batting average, RBIs, and home runs ever did. For a sample of the type of stats I think cricket could benefit from see Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus.

In other words, I don't want cricket statistics that tell us how frequently batsmen duck under bouncers. I want the cricket versions of VORP, ERA+, and Win Shares. There's a lot of work that needs to be done before stats like those exist, but I think it can be done.

 
At Feb 3, 2008, 6:16:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Quite a poorly researched analysis.

Firstly, the number of batting stats or bowling stats are irrelevant. As long as the stats are meaningful and are an accurate forecast of a player's performance, we are fine. Cricinfo is a good source of stats but not complete. Team analysts have even more analsysi available with them.

Secondly, unlike Baseball, cricket is one of the fastest growing sport in the world. Median wages are exxpected to cross more than a $ 1 million by end 2009. Adding endorsements, median wages in the Indian and Australian team already exceed a million.

 
At Feb 4, 2008, 12:27:00 AM , Blogger Danny said...

Sure, the sheer number of stats is irrelevant. I'm not simply advocating stats for their own stake. But, as I argued in later posts (see here, here, and here), existing batting stats in cricket have some flaws that limit their usefulness. I agree that the best stats should be meaningful and good predictors of future performance. But I'm not convinced that batting average meets those criteria. I think there could be a better batting statistic.

Baseball is actually growing pretty quickly around the world. Just to provide some sense of baseball's global reach, the 2006 World Baseball Classic saw 16 teams participate, the exact same number as participated in the 2007 Cricket World Cup, with a similar number of "minnows" that had no chance of actually winning the tournament. I don't know about the relative rate of growth of cricket and baseball, but I do know that Major League Baseball is investing a lot of money in efforts to expand baseball around the world.

As for player salaries, it's not really appropriate to compare wages for international players with average Major League Baseball players. This is one of the real differences between cricket and baseball: in cricket, international matches represent the pinnacle of play, whereas in baseball, MLB is where all the action is. Still, even if you were assume that 15 players from all 10 Test-playing nations all earned at least $1 million dollars a year in salary (an assumption that is undoubtedly wrong), those 150 "cricket millionaires" would be dwarfed by the 300+ major leaguers who earned over a million dollars in salary last year. Baseball is more lucrative than cricket in terms of salary, and probably in terms of endorsement, too. Whether that explains the relative dearth of cricket stats compared to baseball (as I suggested in this post) is still up for debate. I'm not sure that it does, but I do think that the astronomical figures that baseball players make has helped motivate the sophisticated statistical analysis that sabermetricians have brought to baseball.

 
At May 12, 2014, 5:24:00 AM , Anonymous Cricket Schedule said...

Thanks for sharing informative informative posts regarding cricket.

 

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