Phillies preseason preview, part 1: The lineup
Last Saturday night I dreamt that the Phillies traded Ryan Howard for Juan Pierre and Dick Kennedy (the fact that the trade involved a non-existent player should have tipped me off that it was just a dream). I woke up on Sunday morning with a big sigh of relief... one of the game's best young sluggers for an overrated centerfielder and some guy I had never heard of? Still, the first thing I did online was to check the Phillies website and make doubly sure that Ryan Howard was still wearing the red pinstripes.
Howard's a huge (figuratively and literally) part of the one of the best young infields in baseball. He, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins all have good chances to make the All Star Game for the next 5+ years, if not longer. They're a big part of the Phillies offense, and their continuing maturation in the next few years will help determine whether the Phillies break through to the playoffs for the first time since 1993 and only the second time since 1983.
There have been some major changes to the Phillies since the end of last season. The two biggest are the departures of Jim Thome (to the White Sox) and Billy Wagner (to the Mets). The two biggest names in the arrival column are centerfielder Aaron Rowand (who came over in the Thome trade) and Tom Gordon (who signed as a free agent after a two-year stint with the Yankees).
So the 2006 Phillies will be a different team than their 2005 incarnation. The question is whether they'll improve on last season's 88 wins and make the playoffs. The best way to answer this is to go through the team position by position and guess at their 2006 performance. This post is devoted to the members of the expected starting line-up. Posts on the bench, starting rotation, and bullpen will follow. I'm ignoring defense for two reasons: 1) It's really hard to gauge; 2) the Phillies defense should be roughly as good as it was last year.
Catcher
Mike Lieberthal is clearly in the declining phase of his career. His average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage have declined over the past few years and 2005 marked the first time since 2001 that Lieberthal did not appear in 130 games. At 34 years old, he's not going to get any better, and it's likely that he'll get worse.
2005 back-up Todd Pratt departed for the braves. His replacement is journeyman Sal Fasano (great baseball name). Fasano had the best season in his career in 2005, but it's unlikely that he'll exceed Pratt's offensive production from last year last year.
The Phillies offensive production at catcher is likely to decline in 2006. This represents one of the few real holes in their line-up.
First baseman
Reigning Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard is a stud, plain and simple. In spite of playing only 88 games last year, he hit 22 home runs, got on base at a solid .356 clip, and mashed his way to a .567 slugging percentage. All this while hitting just .148 against left-handed pitching (which, admittedly, manager Charlie Manuel shielded him against). There's no reason that Howard can't improve on his rate stats and hit 40+ home runs this year as he grows more accustomed to major-league pitching. It's not clear how much he'll start against left-handers, but he deserves a chance to play every day.
The 1B situation for the Phillies was a mess the first half of last season. An injured Jim Thome struggled in the early part of the season, batting just .207 and not playing any games after June. Ryan Howard didn't get the full-time until midway through the season, which meant the Phillies went half the season without a healthy first baseman capable of the offensive production you need from the position. The first base situation in 2006 is a clear and potentially huge improvement over last season.
Second baseman
Chase Utley had a great 2005; he just might have been the best second baseman in baseball... in his first full season in the league. Which makes it even more frustrating that Charlie Manuel jerked him around at the beginning of the season. He should have been playing second base every day, with Placido Polanco taking David Bell's spot at the hot corner. Utley's alleged inability to hit left-handed pitching turned out to be overstated, as he had an on-base percentage of .348 and a slugging percentage of .469 against southpaws (hopefully Ryan Howard develops along these lines this season).
Utley has fantastic power for a second baseman, showed growing discipline at the plate, and contributed 16 steals along the way. There's no reason that he can't be even better in 2006 (when he'll be just 27), but even if he falls a bit short of his 2005 production, he'll still be a tremendous offensive asset.
Third baseman
From the good to the bad. Chase Utley might have been the best at his position in baseball last year. David Bell was almost certainly the worst at his (yes, even worse than Mike Lowell). He especially struggled against right-handers, batting just .199/.260/.287. On the other hand, he crushed left-handers, batting .400/.461/.593. He contributed just 10 home runs, not nearly enough from a third baseman. Simply put, David Bell was the biggest hole in the Phillies lineup last year.
That's the bad news. The good news is that it's unlikely that Bell will be that bad in 2006. Yes, he's 33, but a decline as precipitous as his last year is more likely an aberration than the beginning of a trend. I don't expect Bell to reach or even come close to his great 2004 production, but a rebound from last year shouldn't be out of the question.
Incidentally, Bell's dramatically divergent batting statistics and right-handed and left-handed pitching makes him a prime candidate for a platoon at third base. Hopefully Charlie Manuel will realize this early in the season and save us from watching Bell try to hit right-handers.
Shortstop
Aside from, possibly, two guys named Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, Jimmy Rolliins will be drawing more attention at the beginning of the season than anyone else. While the world wonders if Clemens will be back for another year and watches Bonds as he eclipses Babe Ruth's career home run total, J-Roll is eyeing up a different record, perhaps even more hallowed than the Babe's 714 home rungs. Rollins hit safely in the final 36 of the 2005 season. Another three weeks like that and he'll match Joe DiMaggio's practically unthinkable 56-game hitting streak.
It's unlikely that Rollins will reach DiMaggio, of course, but Jimmy will be bringing lots of excitement to Citizens Bank Park when April rolls around.
Before his hitting streak began on August 23, Rollins was actually only having a middling season, with an on-base percentage of .304 and a slugging percentage of .378. And, as it turned out, he wasn't as good in 2005 as he was in 2004. Rollins will be 27 this year, which means the best seasons of his career should take place over the next few years. Given that and his strong 2004 production, he should perform somewhere between the 2004 and 2005 versions of Jimmy Rollins; in other words, an improvement from 2005.
Leftfielder
After an atrocious 2003 and a middling 2004, Pat Burrell finally put together a good season for the Phillies last year, getting on-base at a .389 clip, slugging .504, and hitting 32 home runs. It's difficult to predict his 2006 performance. When a guy's production varies as much as Burrell's has, there's simply no telling if he's due for another off year or a career season. The good news about Burrell: he's 29 this year, which should be his absolute prime. If he has another great season in him, it should happen this season or next. His Isolated Power (slugging percentage minus batting average) improve from .195 in 2003 and .198 in 2004 to .223 in 2005. If he keeps that up, he should slug over .500 this year. The bad news about Pat Burrell: he's inconsistent, as discussed above. Though his on-base percentage has improved each of the last two years, that improvement has come almost entirely from an improved batting average; his rate of obtaining walks only increased slightly from 2004 to 2005.
So he's a tough call. The optimist in me points out that he's in the prime of his career and is coming off a solid season. The pessimist in me worries about the fact that he's had only two really good season in five full years at the major league level.
But there's no better time for optimism than before spring training even starts. So I think Pat Burrell's 2006 will be broadly similar to his 2005, with a decent chance that he'll improve.
Centerfielder
The Phillies had one of the best centerfielders in baseball last year. The problem (if you see it as one) is that it went by the names of Jason Michaels and Kenny Lofton. The platoon put up great numbers last year, headlined by Lofton's batting average of .335 and Michaels's on-base percentage of .399. Both of them are gone now, Lofton to the Dodgers via free agency and Michaels to the Indians in a recent trade for reliever Arthur Rhodes.
In their stead comes new centerfielder Aaron Rowand, acquired in a trade from the White Sox for Jim Thome. Rowand's only played more than 140 games in a season twice in his career, so there's not a huge amount to go on to accurately predict how he'll hit in 2006.
He had a great 2004, with an on-base percentage of .361 and a slugging percentage of .544 (fantastic power for a centerfielder). His 2005 campaign was a definite regression. His OBP slipped to .329 (not good) and his SLG dropped almost 140 points to .407.
Chances are, his true ability lies somewhere in between those numbers. So I see Rowand batting around .290, getting on-base at .345, and slugging .480 or so. Figure he's good for home runs. Those power numbers are a definite improvement over Michaels at Lofton in 2005, but Rowand's lower on-base skills will hurt more than his power will help. The Phillies will likely see a drop-off in offensive production from centerfield in 2006.
Rightfielder
Bobby Abreu had a strange 2005. He finally gained the widespread recognition he's deserved for the last few years. He won the Home Run Derby, hitting a scintillating 24 dingers in the first round. He was awarded his first Gold Glove, much to the confusion of fans who watch him out in right field on a regular basis. And he finished 14th in the MVP balloting, his best ever showing.
Yet he also had his lowest on-base percentage since 2001. His slugging percentage dropped from .544 to .474. He only hit 24 home runs, just 7 after June 26. So while Abreu became famous in 2005, 2005 was not his best season.
He'll be 32 this year, which means he's on the wrong side of 30 and is ripe to start declining. Still, I think his power decline in 2005 was a bit of an aberration; his slugging percentage was almost 40 points below his career average. He'll continue to get a lot of walks, and he's still a consistent threat to steal 30 bases. I think he has at least one more great year in him, maybe even another 30 home run season. In short, I think the Bobby Abreu of 2006 will be better than the Bobby Abreu of 2005.
Concluding thoughts
The Phillies will get more runs from their starting line-up than they did last year. They'll be as good or better at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and RF. They'll slip a bit at C and CF, but not so much as to offset the improvements they'll see elsewhere in the lineup. Remember, the Phillies scored 807 runs last year, fifth most in the major leagues. They'll continue to be an offensive force in 2006. Some of that can be attributed to playing in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, but the Phillies have a potent line-up, with potential All-Stars with at least four positions. Expect a lot of runs.
Upcoming in the next week: previews of the bench, starting rotation, and bullpen.
posted by Danny @ 5:52 PM
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