Thursday, May 18, 2006

Why aren't there more cricket statistics? Part 3

Though cricket and baseball share many characteristics, baseball has many more statistics than cricket. There are several external explanations for this disparity, including the lack of a clearly defined international cricket schedule and baseball's astronomical salaries. In addition to these external factors, there are at least two aspects of the game of cricket itself that have contributed to the relative lack of cricket stats compared to baseball. First, baseball simply has more things to count than cricket. Second, measuring players' contributions in cricket is far easier in cricket than baseball. Together, these two phenomena go a long way in explaining why there aren't more cricket statistics.

At the most basic level, cricket is a simple game. Bowlers attempt to take wickets and prevent batsmen from scoring runs. The basic outline of baseball is similar; the batting side tries to score runs while the the defense tries to prevent runs from being scored. In practice, however, baseball is more complex in terms of the possible outcomes to a single play. That increased complexity leads directly to a need for more sophisticated statistics.

The most fundamental unit of a cricket game is the ball (analogous to a pitch in baseball). A given ball can have one of 20 outcomes (I may be missing some; please feel free to correct me). These are:
- a dot ball (0 runs scored)
- 1 run scored
- 2 runs scored
- 3 runs scored
- 4 runs scored
- 5 runs scored (rare in practice but possible in practice)
- 6 runs scored
- Out, bowled
- Out, caught
- Out, handled the ball
- Out, hit the ball twice
- Out, hit wicket
- Out, leg before wicket
- Out, obstructing the field
- Out, run out
- Out, stumped
- No ball
- Wide
- Bye
- Leg bye

The corresponding list in baseball is longer. Individual pitches in baseball can have at least 39 outcomes. This list is close to comprehensive; feel free to skip right to the bottom.

- Ball, less than 4 balls
- Ball, 4th ball in an at-bat, resulting in a walk (runner is awarded 1st base)
- Swinging, called strike, or foul tip, less than than 3 strikes
- Swinging, called strike, or foul tip, 3rd strike (batter is out)
- Swinging, called strike, or foul tip, 3rd strike, catcher drops pitch and 1st base is open (or there are two outs), batter is not out and can try to reach 1st base
- Foul ball, no catch, less than 2 strikes (counts as a strike)
- Foul ball, no catch, 2 strikes (no change)
- Foul ball, caught (batter is out)
- Foul bunt with 2 strikes (batter is out)
- Wild pitch (bad pitch by pitcher gets past catcher and baserunner(s) advance)
- Passed ball (playable pitch gets past catcher and baserunner(s) advance)
- Hit by pitch, batter is awarded 1st base
- Catcher interference, batter is awarded 1st base
- Balk (illegal movement by pitcher, baserunners advance 1 base)
- Ball in play, caught in the air, no runners advance (batter is out)
- Ball in play, caught in the air, runners advance (batter is out, sacrifice fly)
- Ball in play, interference (batter is out)
- Ball in play, batter touches ball (batter is out)
- Ball in play, ground out to 1st base (batter is out)
- Ball in play, sacrifice (batter is out, runner advance)
- Ball in play, tagged out (batter is out)
- Ball in play, infield fly rule (batter is out)
- Ball in play, fielder's choice (batter reaches 1st base but another baserunner is out)
- Ball in play, single (batter reaches 1st base)
- Ball in play, double (batter reaches 2nd base)
- Ball in play, triple (batter reaches 3rd base)
- Ball in play, home run, out of park (batter scores run)
- Ball in play, inside-the-park home run (batter scores run)
- Ball in play, ground-rule double (batter is awarded 2nd base)
- Ball in play, baserunner tagged (baserunner is out)
- Ball in play, fly out/line drive double play (batter and baserunner are out)
- Ball in play, groundout double play (batter and baserunner are out)
- Ball in play, fly out/line drive triple play (batter and 2 baserunners are out)
- Ball in play, groundout triple play (batter and 2 baserunners are out)
- Ball in player, runner interference (baserunner is out, batter is awarded 1st base)
- Stolen base by baserunner

Most of these events can occur in a variety of game situations, including no one on base, a baserunner on 1st base, a baserunner on 2nd base, a baserunner on 3rd base, baserunners on 1st and 2nd base, base runners on 2nd and 3rd base, baserunners on 1st and 3rd base, and baserunners on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base. So there are literally hundreds of possible events in baseball, far more than cricket. More events means more things that you can count which, in turn, means more potential statistics. Baseball has more statistics than cricket because, simply, there is more to count.

The simplicity of scoring in cricket also helps account for the relative paucity of statistics in cricket. One of the major developments in baseball stats in the past few years has been the creation of stats that accurately players' contributions to runs scored. For some events this is easy: a player who hits a home run with no runners on base is clearly and unambiguously responsible for 1 run scored. But what if there had been a player on first base? The player hitting theom run shouldn't get credit for 2 runs. After all, the player on first base did something right in the first place. As it turns out, a single with no one on base and no outs is worth 0.39 runs. Baseball statisticians (also known as sabermetricians) have done all sorts of fancy calculations to determine the precise run value of each possible event in a baseball game. A runner on first steals second with 2 outs? +0.27 runs. That runner attempts to steal second and is out? -0.58 runs. A pitcher striking out the batter with the bases loaded and two outs? -0.81 runs. And so on. Add up the value of all a given players' actions and you've got a pretty good approximationg of that player's contribution of runs.

In cricket, determining players' run contribution is far easier: simply count up the number of runs scored. Batsmen are almost entirely responsible for the runs credited to them. A player scoring a century has earned each of those hundred runs, though he may get a bit of luck along the way in the form of poor fielding or bad shot that somehow find the gaps.

This difference between cricket and baseball is a major factor in the relative abundance of baseball statistics. In both sports runs are the key measure of achievement: the team that scores more runs wins. In cricket, it is far easier to pinpoint who is responsible for each run. In baseball, this task is far more difficult. Aside from solo home runs, at least two offensive players deserve credit for each run scored. Baseball's wealth of batting statistics represents an effort to determine just how many runs each player contributes, a task that is wholly unnecessary in cricket.

All that said, cricket statistics are far from comprehensive. There are several areas where cricket statistics could become more sophisticated and, as a result, more accurately reflect cricketers' skills and achievements. Some of those areas will be discussed in the remaining posts in this series.

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