Monday, January 31, 2005

Super Bowl thoughts

Jesse of the Avuncular Undergrad is right. I do think the Eagles are a very good football team. The problem is, unlike other years, I don't know just how good they are. I've only seen five of their games this year, so I've largely had to rely on the internet and my football-obsessed brother to get a sense of how good they are.

As far as I'm concerned, here are the key points about the Eagles:

- They don't give up a lot of points. Over the course of the regular season, they allowed, on average, 16.3 points each game. That average, however, includes the last two regular reason games, when head coach Andy Reid sat most of his key starters and the Eagles promptly gave up a total of 58 points. Throw out those two games and you're looking at 14.4 points allowed each game. They did even better in their first two playoff games, giving up 14 points against Minnesota and only 10 against Atlanta, explosive offenses both.

- They're tremendously well-coached. Andy Reid has won more games in the past five years than any coach in the NFL. You don't go to the NFC championship game four straight years by luck. Even the much (and deservedly) praised Bill Belichick only managed to lead the Patriots to a 9-7 season in 2002, barely missing the playoffs. The Eagles consistently win, and when they lose (like the debacle against the Steelers earlier this season), they make adjustments that get the job done.

- They don't turn the ball over very much. Their 16 turnovers were tied for fourth lowest in the league. The Patriots had 20.

- They have, perhaps, the best special teams in the game. Much of that comes from the leg of David Akers. Then again, the Patriots have a rather fine kicker in one Adam Vinatieri. But with Brian Westbrook likely returning punts for the Eagles in the Super Bowl, the Eagles' special teams units gain a slight edge over the Pats.

I'm not in any position to make a prediction about the outcome of the Super Bowl. But I can tell you that it's going to be a fantastic game between two great teams. What more can you ask for? Well, an Eagles victory, of course...

1 Comments:

At Feb 3, 2005, 5:15:00 AM , Blogger Danny said...

Yeah, I always have my doubts about arguments that go along the lines of, "X beat Y and Z, so they're definitely going to beat P." Even if the Patriots are a better team than the Eagles (which is certainly the conventional wisdom), that doesn't mean that they would win every game played between the two teams. I think a better way of understanding the outcome of single games is the flip of a weighted coin.

I expect the Eagles to try to be explosive early and find the mismatches... and with both Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens on the field, there are going to be some. This is where coaching will play a big role.

 

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